Will the Grand Alliance’s vote bank be dented?

Ahead of the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi will launch his election campaign today from Kishanganj in Bihar’s Seemanchal region. Owaisi announced his campaign plans a day earlier through his official X (formerly Twitter) handle, outlining a detailed five-day schedule that includes various public events and rallies across the region. In his social media message, he hinted at new alliances and political alignments. Owaisi had previously said, “I will arrive in Kishanganj tomorrow and will stay in Bihar’s Seemanchal region until September 27, Insha Allah. I look forward to meeting many colleagues and, Insha Allah, making many new friendships.” This statement is being seen as a clear indication that Owaisi, who has not received any response from the All India Alliance, is now exploring the possibility of a regional political partnership in Seemanchal. It’s worth noting that about a month and a half ago, AIMIM state president Akhtarul Iman, at Owaisi’s behest, wrote a letter to India Bloc leaders highlighting the backwardness and neglect of Seemanchal and urging them to unite against the NDA in the upcoming elections. However, there was no response from the main opposition parties in Bihar, especially the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Prior to Owaisi’s campaign, the Bihar unit of AIMIM appealed to its supporters and workers across the state, especially in Seemanchal, to actively participate in the campaign to help secure the legitimate rights of the people of the region. Seemanchal comprises four districts: Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar, all of which have significant Muslim populations. This demographic makes the region politically favorable for AIMIM, which is working to expand its presence there. Seemanchal has indeed become a fertile ground for AIMIM’s political ambitions. Traditionally, Seemanchal has been a stronghold of the RJD. At one time, all four districts were dominated by Taslimuddin, a powerful RJD leader and former MP who was close to RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. However, after Taslimuddin’s demise, the RJD’s influence in the region has gradually declined—although it still retains a significant base. The entry of AIMIM into Seemanchal politics has undoubtedly made the political landscape more competitive for the RJD. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, AIMIM made a strong electoral debut by winning five seats in the Seemanchal region. Previously, in 2015, the party had unsuccessfully contested the Kishanganj by-election. In 2020, it fielded candidates in 24 seats across the four Seemanchal districts and emerged victorious in five constituencies, significantly boosting its political credibility.